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A Sea of Negative Yielding Red Ink

July 1, 2019 | Commentary

  • Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2018 concerns about global growth spurred demand for the safest sovereign debt, pushing interest rates deep into negative territory for Japan, Germany and Switzerland.  Today there is almost $13 trillion of primarily sovereign debt outstanding with negative yields.
  • $13 trillion is more than 20% of global GDP.  If these bonds average -0.30% yields, savers are annually paying these governments a voluntary tax of nearly $40 billion for the safety they seek.
  • Negative 10-year rates imply a market expectation of no growth and negative policy rates for a decade.  There is nothing in current data to support such a dire outlook.
  • Politicians love ultralow and negative rates.  They can borrow and spend with virtually no impact on budgets.  Today’s situation has evolved over the last five years and could continue for many more.  Investors, however, should not take this for a given, but instead keep an eye on the potential risks should the apparently insatiable demand for safe assets disappear.

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