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An Atypical Housing Market

August 1, 2023 | Commentary

  • The U.S. housing market is a closely watched indicator of the economy.  New and existing home sales and applications for building permits have often moved together and in concert with GDP.
  • As the Fed began their interest rate hikes in the spring of 2022, mortgage rates followed, and the housing market turned down.  There was a broad consensus that this was a preview of the path to recession.  Neither housing’s demise nor the arrival of recession has happened yet.
  • Since the Global Financial Crisis housing supply has fallen well short of demand spurred by rising populations and wealth.  The COVID pandemic only exacerbated this imbalance.  The recent reacceleration of housing starts surprised many but reflects the shortage of existing homes listed for sale and the continued demand of those wanting to become homeowners.
  • Economic forecasts are often made by comparing two time series of data.  However, the pandemic disruptions were so big and of such a different nature that trying to analyze current events from historical data drawn from completely dissimilar periods is fraught with potential error. These simple data driven forecasts have often been wildly off the mark for more than a year.  Housing is just one vivid example.

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