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Are We in a Recession?

September 1, 2022 | Commentary

  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis last month released its estimate for the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showing the second consecutive small decline in output for the economy. This prompted many observers to state that the U.S. was in a recession.
  • While two consecutive quarters of negative GDP has been a convenient rule of thumb concerning recessions, the official designation is made by a group of academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research that considers many factors beyond GDP.
  • Recessions have historically been most associated with rapidly rising unemployment and tumbling consumer spending.  Neither of these conditions holds today.
  • There are pockets of economic softness, especially in housing, that could lead to a more prolonged downturn that bear watching.  But the U.S. economy, almost 70% driven by consumer spending, still has a forward push from a strong labor market.  As long as consumer demand is growing, businesses are likely to continue to invest to compete for those expanding opportunities.

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