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Do Stock Market Highs Predict the Future?

August 1, 2021 | Commentary

  • U.S. equities over the past 40 years have reflected the growth in the economy and have been in a generally rising market.  Along the way, new record highs occur, though not continuously.  After a large market correction, it may take years to regain the top ground.  Once there, records can occur in bunches.
  • Ironically perhaps, it is when the market sets regular records that commentators appear and start cautioning against the next big decline and urging defensive measures.  Many investors, naturally concerned about the impact of big losses, look to reduce risk through asset allocation shifts.
  • Research based on daily U.S. stock market returns since 1980 shows that there is no identifiable connection between returns over 12 months and whether that period opened on a record day or not.
  • The brokerage, banking and insurance industries are all motivated to have investors actively trade or buy products to shift their asset allocations.  Careful long-term investors address risk at the portfolio construction stage, anticipating the inevitable ups and downs.  This minimizes the influence of behavioral biases that make us susceptible to the urge to regularly do something with our portfolios.

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