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Gambling and Leverage

May 1, 2025 | Commentary

  • Gambling has always been a feature of most cultures around the world and America is no exception. Until recent years it was generally viewed negatively and discouraged. Today there are many industries actively promoting it as a socially acceptable pastime.
  • Nowhere is this more obvious than in online sports betting, which started at zero in 2018 and has become a multibillion-dollar industry expected to grow at more than 12% annually over the next decade.
  • This culture is not confined to sports and casino gambling. It has permeated our capital markets. Highly leveraged stock index options that expire the same day they are created are a prime example. Trading these options from the long side can be compared to buying lottery tickets. Managing the implicit leverage arising from writing such options often creates additional daily volatility.
  • Volatility on any given day is exacerbated by leveraged traders with exceedingly short time horizons, which is the antithesis of what long-term investors should focus on. This is mainly noise with little informational content about the state of the real economy.

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