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Hurricanes, energy prices and inflation

October 1, 2017 | Commentary

  • The cost in lives and the physical destruction from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria have made 2017 a year for the record books for the people of Texas, Florida and the Caribbean. Our deepest sympathies go out to everyone affected.
  • Beyond the direct human and physical losses, such disasters also have an impact on key markets like oil and gasoline. Given the importance of the energy sector to the economy, it is natural to speculate how this will all play out in terms of growth and inflation.
  • With property losses in the tens of billions of dollars, there will be a meaningful spike in construction activity in the affected areas. The big question is whether at today’s low unemployment rate enough labor resources can be marshalled to complete the recovery work quickly.
  • The recent spike of August CPI to .4%, the highest since January, has prompted some to forecast a general up trend in inflation. While the energy sector has been disrupted, recent price action is likely to be temporary and reversed over the next several months. When inflation accelerates from its generally benign state, it will be from an expanding economy and higher wages.The cost in lives and the physical destruction from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria have made 2017 a year for the record books for the people of Texas, Florida and the Caribbean. Our deepest sympathies go out to everyone affected

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