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Interpreting Stock Market Volatility... Noise or Signal?

September 5, 2019 | Commentary

  • Recent stock market volatility appears to stem largely from macro concerns ranging from trade policy to the shape of the yield curve.  Despite the uncomfortable volatility in August, and recent minor downward revisions to GDP growth, the economy and corporate earnings seem to be holding up relatively well.
  • Stock markets do not suddenly reverse simply because they are at or near record levels.  In the six years since March, 2013 when the S&P 500 regained the previous high mark set in Q4 2007, there have been more than 200 times when a new closing day record was set.  None of them presaged the end of the rally.
  • As much as we might like a volatility pattern in stocks that looked more like T-bills (as long as we kept the returns!), history reminds us that is not how equity markets work.  Over very long periods, daily up or down moves of more than 1% happen 20-25% of the time, or an average of once a week. 
  • The biggest question right now is the direction of global trade, which remains in a state of flux.  The market tries to discount each new bit of news on the topic, and as the news stream is erratic, the market is as well.  This volatility is discomforting, and one might hope for some kind of resolution in the near future.  But in reality, we simply do not know how trade negotiations will work out and their ultimate impact on corporate earnings and the overall market.  The essential portfolio characteristics of asset class diversification and liquidity have rarely been more important.

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