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Progress on the Inflation Fight

January 1, 2024 | Commentary

  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered a holiday present when it announced after its December meeting that it was stopping policy rate hikes and it expected modest cuts of 0.50% to be possible by the end of 2024.
  • The stock and bond markets embraced this news and inflation data that showed progress versus a year ago to spur a sharp rally that built upon a strong November.
  • While headline and core inflation are both drifting down, the gains have largely come from absolute declines in energy and other goods prices.  Service inflation has remained above the Fed’s target and in some cases has nudged higher. Rising home prices may cause shelter inflation to continue to prove troublesome.
  • There is a reliable but little discussed seasonal pattern to inflation.  News early in 2024 may be less rosy than that of Q4 2023, leading to a potential for macro-driven market reversals.
  • It is often counter-productive to try to time portfolio changes against anticipated macroeconomic events, but the discipline of rebalancing any outsized equity positions should be maintained.  There may also be tactical opportunities that arise in fixed income as the interplay of inflation and Fed policy rate positioning plays out.

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