Back to Insights

Returning to Normal?

January 1, 2023 | Commentary

  • From the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) through 2021 policy interest rates around the developed world hovered at or below zero. Viewed in some circles as a slain dragon, inflation returned with a vengeance in 2021 prompting central banks to raise rates as their best defense against further price acceleration.
  • As 2022 drew to a close, the rate of U.S. inflation was falling but still running well above the Fed’s target of 2%. Uncertainty about how much higher policy rates may be raised, and how long they may be held at elevated levels, continues to create volatility across asset classes.
  • The last time the Fed Funds Rate was above 5% was in Q3 2007, right before the housing market collapse and the severe recession that followed the GFC. Many believe that recent Fed action could precipitate a similar economic downturn. However, major parts of the economy, especially the strength of the banking system and the relatively less leveraged housing sector, are different today. Drawing simple parallels between the GFC and now is likely misguided.
  • With higher rates, bonds can provide a meaningful contribution to target returns while providing some protection against equity risk. The traditional balance between stocks and bonds, essentially missing in the era of zero interest rates, is once again a viable possibility. We might be returning to a world considered normal prior to the GFC.

To continue reading and to learn more about Offit Capital, login or contact us.

Connect Now

Privacy Notice

Provided in accordance with the Securities and Exchange Commission's rule regarding the privacy of consumer financial information (Regulation S-P).

Information We Collect

Offit Capital must collect certain personally identifiable financial information about its clients to ensure that it offers the highest quality financial services and products. The personally identifiable financial information which we gather during the normal course of doing business with you may include:

Information We Disclose

We do not disclose any nonpublic personal information about our clients or former clients to anyone, except as permitted by law. Nonpublic personal information means personally identifiable financial information and any list, description or other grouping of clients that is derived using any personally identifiable financial information that is not publicly available.

In accordance with Section 248.13 of Regulation S-P, we may disclose all of the information we collect, as described above, to certain nonaffiliated third parties such as attorneys, accountants, auditors and persons or entities that are assessing our compliance with industry standards. We enter into contractual agreements with all nonaffiliated third parties that prohibit such third parties from disclosing or using the information other than to carry out the purposes for which we disclose the information.

Confidentiality & Security

We restrict access to nonpublic personal information about you to those employees who need to know that information to provide financial products or services to you. We maintain physical, electronic, and procedural safeguards that comply with federal standards to guard your nonpublic personal information.

Legal Disclosure

The information contained herein is for illustrative and discussion purposes only, subject to revision, modification and updating and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any securities or other instruments in any jurisdictions. Each prospective client should make their own investigation and evaluation of any investment or investment strategy described herein, should evaluate possible tax consequences and should have the financial ability and willingness to accept any associated risks. No assurance can be given that investment objectives will be achieved. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Past performance does not guarantee and may not be indicative of future results. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

This website may contain "forward-looking statements" which are based on Offit Capital’s beliefs, as well as on a number of assumptions concerning future events, based on information currently available to Offit Capital. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements, which are not a guarantee of future performance, and are subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside Offit Capital’s control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements.

Users of this website: (i) agree to respect and protect Offit Capital’s proprietary rights during and after the time they use the site and shall promptly notify Offit Capital if they become aware of any infringement of these rights; (ii) may not publish, broadcast, retransmit, reproduce, repackage, scrape, frame, commercially exploit, create any derivative of or otherwise re-sell, license, transmit or redistribute all or any portion of the information contained herein except as explicitly permitted by Offit Capital. Offit Capital makes reasonable efforts to ensure that the website is secure, but does not guarantee the security of the website.

Commentary documents are intended for informational purposes only and contains the opinions of Offit Capital. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to purchase, any securities, nor does it constitute an endorsement with respect to any investment area or vehicle. This presentation is subject to revision, modification and updating. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This presentation is confidential, and is intended only for the person to whom it has been delivered. Under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient (unless required by applicable law). © 2019 Offit Capital
Forgot your password? No Account? Request Access.

Request Access

Note: You will be emailed an access link upon submitting this form.