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The Good Inflation

January 1, 2025 | Commentary

  • The recent Fed decision to cut policy interest rates by another 0.25% while simultaneously reeling in their expectations for rate cuts in 2025, has raised many questions about the direction of the economy, stocks and bonds.
  • Almost all focus is on inflation as measured by consumer prices. This inflation is viewed as an unambiguous negative for the country. However, there is good inflation, which is when rising housing prices and the stock market increase wealth.
  • The most recently available data from the Federal Reserve through the third quarter showed net household wealth to have increased by $13.3 trillion so far in 2024. This is the second year of strong gains. As a result, the continued growth in wealth should add to GDP growth as some of that wealth gets recycled into the economy as consumption and new capital projects.
  • There is little in labor market or consumption data to suggest a U.S. recession is in the immediate future. This is good news on the real economy front, but a challenge for the Fed in their fight against stubborn inflation.

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