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The More Things Change...

May 1, 2024 | Commentary

  • The expected federal deficit in fiscal year 2024 is $1.6 trillion, which is about 6% of GDP.This is unprecedented in a full-employment economy growing at more than 2.5% per year.
  • Total debt outstanding held by the public is $27 trillion, which is almost 100% of GDP, a levelnot seen since the depths of WW II.
  • The primary budget deficit is not projected to contract any time in the future mainly becauseof mandated programs like Social Security and Medicare and an aging population. Intereston the debt will continue to grow as a share of the federal budget, likely crowding out otherdiscretionary spending, which includes the military.
  • In an increasingly fractious world, there are genuine risks to the dollar and the globaleconomy if U.S. debt continues to grow without bounds. Inflation would be the least badsolution to the debt problem. The consequences of default and restructuring are almostbeyond imagination. Both political parties should be looking for compromise solutions witha sense of urgency.

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