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Unraveling the vix mystery, part 1

June 1, 2017 | Commentary

  • VIX is the most widely followed indicator of stock market volatility, being based on the prices paid for S&P 500 Index puts and calls traded at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). When writers of options demand high premiums to sell, and buyers are willing to pay up, VIX reflects this by increasing. Conversely, cheaper options produce lower values of VIX. Last month saw spot VIX drop below 10 twice, the lowest levels observed in over 10 years.
  • VIX is not like most government statistics, which look backwards and capture events that have already happened. VIX is determined on a moment to moment basis by buyers and sellers of S&P 500 options, which can be highly variable.
  • Spot VIX has very little predictive power for the direction of stock market changes in the short run. Time and again, history shows that VIX reacts to market moves. It does not predict them.
  • Investors should recognize spot VIX on any given day is of limited utility in guiding their decisions. A better indicator is forward VIX, which reflects opinions about time horizons and portfolio insurance choices more relevant to most long-term investors.
  • Traders can and do regularly influence measured VIX, and such trades may be more reflective of fund flows than they are fundamental volatility in the stock market. Next month we shall explore more deeply how trading in volatility based futures, options and exchange traded products may be distorting spot VIX and creating systemic forces in the stock market.

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