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Unraveling the vix mystery, part 2

July 1, 2017 | Commentary

  • VIX, defined and described in last month’s Offit Capital Commentary, continues to be at historically low levels, but with a large spread between spot and forward values.
  • There are multiple ways to express an opinion in the volatility market. Professionals and retail investors alike can access S&P 500 options, VIX futures and a wide assortment of exchange traded notes (ETNs) that allow one to go long or short volatility. Each of these is connected back to the stock market through a web of professional arbitrageurs.
  • Basic option time decay allows option writers to earn the time premium on average. This truism plus quieter than average markets has encouraged more and more money to come into the short volatility space. This has lowered the price of S&P 500 options and suppressed spot VIX. It has also increased the risk of a snap back should these positions all try to reverse at the same time.
  • Long periods of quiet markets do not in themselves forecast a sudden jump in market volatility. What they do, however, is cause investors to diminish or eliminate their fear of market reversals. Writing options or trying to profit by being short volatility futures or ETNs is analogous to picking up nickels and dimes in front of steamrollers. Investors should never forget that there are always steamrollers someplace on the street and the aggressive investor will likely meet one when volatility spikes.

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